Sea level rise (SLR) poses a substantial danger to Egypt’s North Coast and Delta, affecting Egypt as a whole. The World Bank (2022) reports that globally, Egypt is the fifth most vulnerable country to the socio-economic impacts of SLR on cities. With SLR, coastal erosion, flooding, saltwater intrusion into freshwater, and land salinization will increasingly threaten this significant region’s survival. This affects the livelihoods of numerous communities, including fishermen, farmers, and urban residents.
This report explores the impacts of SLR on Egypt’s North Coast and Delta, focusing on key social disruption and migration (SDM)-related impacts. The report is grounded on the findings of the Egypt SLR Hackathon (February 2024), which carried out rapid assessments and expert judgments across several areas. Detailed findings from these assessments are in a separate report Egypt SLR Hackathon Report (IPDC, 2025).
The analysis presented herein integrates scientific and non-scientific literature, open-access data, the flood extend maps and SLR scenarios from the hackathon results, and contributions gathered during the event through a questionnaire and expert interviews to:
- identify key SDM-related impacts of SLR in Egypt, and
- outline mitigation pathways.
The analysis framework is a modification of that from (Mahmoud, Patrahau, & Vignali, 2023). The framework relates the slow-onset impacts of SLR to SDM through insecurities in basic needs (water, food, healthcare, income, education), which prompts individuals to resort to one or more coping mechanisms like migration, seeking alternatives, or protesting. The choice of these mechanisms depends on the broader context and individual characteristics such as age, gender, and education level. The estimates are validated in comparison to existing data; most notably in 2020, the total number of external emigrants from Egypt was 3.6 million (Statista, 2024b).
SDM-related impacts of SLR in Egypt’s North Coast and Delta remain an uncharted area. By 2100, these impacts could extend beyond directly affected areas, disrupting agriculture, infrastructure, and economic activities vital to Egypt’s economy, with broader implications for the entire region.
