Insights from the IPDC Sea-Level Rise Hackathon in Egypt

A preliminary Assessment of Social Disruption and Migration Risks due to Sea-Level Rise

What insights were gained during last year’s IPDC Sea-Level Rise Hackathon in Egypt? An online session provided a preliminary assessment of social disruption and migration risks due to sea-level rise.

The session explored the outcomes of Egypt’s 2024 Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Hackathon and the subsequent report assessing social disruption and migration (SDM) risks. With Egypt ranking among the most vulnerable countries to sea-level rise, the session highlighted how collaborative innovation can inform policy and community resilience.

Hackathon Insights

The hackathon brought together multidisciplinary teams to tackle SLR challenges across water, agriculture, infrastructure, and health. Outputs included spatial analyses, hazard maps, and adaptation proposals. The event fostered cross-sectoral dialogue and raised awareness of migration as a climate-linked issue.

Social disruption and migration risk study

The session also included a presentation of the findings from the Social Disruption and Migration Study that built on the Hackathon. This study combines hackathon data, a literature review, and field interviews. Key insights from the study include:

Migration responses vary by region, infrastructure, and community familiarity with mobility.
Household-level adaptation is most common in areas with prior exposure.
Financial capacity and government support are pivotal.
Vulnerability mapping must account for population density and local realities.

Panel Reflections

Following the report’s presentation the session held an engaging panel discussion with distinguished experts, including representatives from the National Water Research Centre of Egypt, the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, the Dutch Embassy in Cairo, Deltares, and SOAK.

Their insights covered a range of issues, including:

Migration should be recognised as a form of adaptation.
Risk perception and societal dynamics shape mobility decisions.
Institutional coordination and community engagement are essential.
AI and advanced analytics may help trace indirect climate-migration pathways.

Migration as adaptation

The panel underscored that migration should not be viewed as a failure to cope with climate impacts but rather as a legitimate form of adaptation. As sea level rise and related environmental pressures intensify, mobility can provide households and communities with a pathway to safety and economic resilience. Recognising migration as part of adaptation planning is critical for governments and international organisations, ensuring that relocation strategies are proactive, well-supported, and integrated into broader climate policies.

Risk perception and societal dynamics

Decisions to move are rarely driven by environmental factors alone. Risk perception whether communities see themselves as vulnerable – plays a decisive role. In many cases, people underestimate the threats posed by slow-onset changes like sea level rise, delaying action until options become limited. Social networks, trust in government, and cultural attitudes toward migration further shape mobility patterns. Stigma around leaving one’s home can hinder planned relocation, while early indicators such as shifts in crop choices and spending habits may signal emerging adaptation behaviours.

Institutional coordination and community engagement

The discussion highlighted persistent institutional bottlenecks that complicate climate-related migration planning. Limited cross-ministerial coordination, weak involvement of local communities, and challenges in translating technology into practical solutions were cited as major obstacles. Effective responses require breaking down silos between government agencies, engaging civil society and the private sector, and ensuring that policies reflect local realities. Without these measures, adaptation strategies risk remaining fragmented and reactive.

AI and advanced analytics for climate-migration pathways

Looking ahead, panellists pointed to the potential of AI and advanced analytics to uncover indirect links between climate stressors and migration. By integrating spatial data, household surveys, and qualitative insights, these tools can help identify patterns that traditional methods often miss—such as gradual shifts in livelihoods or urbanisation trends triggered by environmental change. Harnessing these technologies could enable policymakers to anticipate mobility pressures earlier and design interventions that are both targeted and equitable.